Define pipeline stages by business state and exit criteria, not probability
A stage says what is true about the deal and what must happen to leave it. Probability and forecast category are derived from that—never typed in its place.
Independently created. Contains no employer or client implementation detail, internal names or figures.
01Context
Opportunity stages were configured from a vendor template and sellers pick them by feel. Each team reads them differently, probability is typed by hand, and the weekly review debates whether deals are really where they say. Forecasts built on these stages cannot be compared across teams or explained afterwards.
02Decision drivers
- D01
Stages must mean the same thing to every reader
- D02
Reviews need evidence, not opinions
- D03
Forecast categories must be consistent across motions and regions
- D04
Sellers should not maintain fields nobody uses
03Options considered
Probability-led stages: a percentage per deal, typed by the seller
Very small teams with one seller type
Cost: Measures optimism; cannot be coached or auditedVendor-default stages with default probabilities
A quick start
Cost: Stages describe the tool, not the business; no exit criteriaStages as business states with entry and exit criteria; probability and category derived
Any pipeline that is reviewed and forecast
Cost: Criteria must be designed per motion and kept current04Decision
Define each stage as a business state: what must be true to enter, what must be true to leave, the owner, the evidence and the expected next action. Capture exit evidence with as few fields as possible. Derive the forecast category from the stage mapping and calibrate probability from history by motion; managers adjust the forecast, not the stage. Changes to stage definitions go through the RevOps governance forum.
05Consequences
- Reviews discuss evidence and next steps instead of percentages.
- Forecast categories mean the same thing in every region and motion.
- Probability becomes a measured output that can be calibrated.
- Stage definitions become a governed asset with an owner.
06Revisit when
Deals are fully transactional and close in one interaction.
A motion has too little history for stage-based calibration.
07Where this decision is applied
Cases that take this decision, and why it matters there.
- RevOps case / 03Designing pipeline governance across multiple commercial motionsCommon governance—qualified pipeline, outcomes, forecast categories, review format—with motion-specific stages, forecast logic and ageing benchmarks, so the pipeline stays comparable without forcing every team into one process.
- RevOps case / 05Designing forecast governance and pipeline coverage that trigger actionForecast categories from stage semantics, overrides recorded at the forecast level, one owner of the final number, weekly snapshots—and a coverage contract whose threshold starts pipeline generation.